I went to bed
late on election night, and then I lay in bed and couldn’t fall asleep. After a
couple of fitful hours, I woke up in what felt like a different country than
the one I had woken up in the day before.
I served my
mission in 1975 in northern Germany. It had been thirty years since Germany had
lost the war, but most of the people I knew still bore a burden of guilt,
especially those who were old enough to have lived through the Third Reich. I
often wondered how such a civilized and decent people had ever allowed someone
like Adolf Hitler to come to power. After the past year and a half, though, and especially
after Tuesday night, I have a better idea. It has been sobering to see people who
are frustrated over the economic realities of a changing world embrace an
utterly odious man who has cynically played on their fears, their ignorance,
and their baser instincts. What amazes me is that so many convinced themselves that the lies he
was telling were true. But, as Joseph Goebbels could tell us, propaganda is a powerful tool.
Donald Trump won
the election for a variety of reasons. Sure, FBI Director Comey’s untimely and
totally uncalled-for announcement played a role. But there are other more
fundamental reasons. The CNN map showing voting patterns county by county
revealed a country divided starkly between rural and urban voters. Rural areas
voted heavily for Trump, while urban areas weighed in for Clinton. Rural areas
are largely white. Urban areas tend to be more ethnically diverse. Exit polls
revealed other dividing lines. White males without a college education voted
overwhelmingly for Trump. Somewhat surprisingly, white women without a college
education also voted for Trump, although not as lopsidedly as their male
counterparts. Many of them were Evangelicals, who tend to live in a more
authoritarian, male-dominated world than other women. Call this the last revolt
of the undereducated class. The evolving modern economy has left them behind,
and they are angry. They blame Washington, although it is not Washington that
is primarily at fault. Trump came along and told them that their jobs had been
stolen by Mexicans or Asians and promised to bring those jobs back. But this,
like everything else Trump said, was a lie. Those jobs were not taken by
foreigners. Manufacturing has actually grown in America under Obama, but
manufacturing jobs have not. Why?
Because of technology. And those jobs are not coming back, no matter what Trump
does. I wouldn’t be surprised if, in five years, truckers start being replaced
by self-driving semis. More and more of us are going to be replaced by
machines.
The relentless economic
evolution that has left white, blue-collar, undereducated Americans behind is
something that neither Democrats nor Republicans were prepared to address in a
meaningful or realistic way, except for Bernie Sanders. Clinton had no better
answers than Trump. She won the popular vote. He won the electoral vote. But he
won in states where the disenfranchised showed up to express their frustration.
But this is not
why Hillary lost. In spite of his claims of growing the Republican Party, Donald
Trump received fewer votes than either John McCain or Mitt Romney. Hillary lost
because many of the voters who showed up for Barack Obama stayed home Tuesday.
Maybe they really were, like Bernie, tired of hearing about her “damn emails.”
But I don’t think so. I think they were not convinced that she had any answers
for their circumstances. She was too tied to Wall Street, to special interests.
Whatever the reason, they stayed home. They probably watched on TV as America
selected the most flawed and unqualified candidate ever to represent a major
political party.
So the Democrats
have work to do. And they have already started. An editorial on CNN.com spelled
out just why the Democratic Party needs to cleanse itself of the Clinton
apparatus with all its ties and limitations and start afresh with the message
that Bernie Sanders promoted. It was a message that rang true to millions of
Americans, especially the young, and created a passionate wave of activism. He
said things that needed to be said. And he stayed on message. Tonight, by
chance, I received an email from Bernie, inviting me to sign a petition to
support one of his young like-minded colleagues, Rep. Keith Ellison, as the new
chair of the Democratic National Committee. I was happy to do so. I’m about 150
percent certain that if Bernie had indeed won the nomination, he would have
easily won this election. But as we now know, the party was stacked against him
with Clinton loyalists. I guess we don’t have to worry about that anymore.
The Republicans
are claiming a massive victory, but they lost the popular vote, again. That’s six
of the last seven elections. And the national demographics will continue to
shift away from them. They have a rough road ahead. They actually have to
govern now, but they lack a set of coherent policies that will work in the real
21st-century economy. They won’t be able to run again on hatred of government
and demonizing minorities and offering vague policy statements. Their party is deeply divided. And worse, now not
only do they have to own Donald Trump and all of his negatives (which are
yuuuuge), but he owns them. The party is his. And it will bend to his will,
whatever that might be, and it might be very distasteful to both pure
conservative ideologues like Paul Ryan and longtime party power brokers like
Orrin Hatch and Mitch McConnell. I don’t envy them this victory.
They will push
through more supply-side tax cuts for the wealthy, accelerate the growing
inequality, and plunge the country further into debt. They will repeal
Obamacare, but they don’t have a credible plan to replace it with. In the end,
they may have to embrace it, since they are too ideologically handcuffed to be
able to do the right thing and implement a single-payer system. And Obamacare is,
after all, the offspring of conservative think tanks. No, they will lose the
health-care war they have doggedly fought for so long. They will talk about a
market-based system, but they won’t be able to figure out the details without
depriving millions of people the health care they need, because that’s what the
market does. It creates winners and losers. It doesn’t create all winners. We
know this. It’s where we were before Obamacare. And it’s where the Republicans
will have to go if they remain true to their rigid ideology. And then they will
face the inevitable results of reversing Obama’s efforts to combat global
warming. The numbers will absolutely destroy the Republican Party.
Unless they come
to their senses. But what are the chances of that happening? Especially with
Trump at the helm and the right-wing media bubble screening out salient facts.
One final sad comment
on this election. As the numbers came in, I was of course surprised at how
wrong the pollsters were. But this was especially true in Utah. The polls
totally missed the wide margin by which Trump won the state. When I checked the
numbers in the Deseret News the next morning, Trump had 333,197 votes (46.7
percent), Clinton 204,613 (28.7 percent), McMullin only 151,755 (21.3 percent),
and Johnson 23,156 (3.2 percent). When I saw the margin, I was ashamed of my
church. It was obvious that it was the Mormon vote that gave Trump the huge
margin in Utah. In Salt Lake County, where there are more non-LDS voters, the
totals were: Clinton 105,753, Trump 71,933, and McMullin 40,018. The numbers
were similar in Summit County, which is also less Mormon. It was in the more
LDS counties where Trump scored his big victories. In my county, Utah County, which
is overwhelmingly LDS, the totals were: Trump 84,863, McMullin 48,684, and
Clinton 22,934. Davis County was very similar, on a smaller scale, as was Cache
County. Trump won Weber County easily, although Clinton came in second there. Worst
was Washington County (Utah’s Dixie), where Trump took a whopping 68.6 percent
of the vote, with Clinton at 18.8 percent, and McMullin at a measly 10.4
percent. So, Utah Mormons overwhelmingly voted for a man who is a moral
cesspool. So much for family values. I’ve said before that I think many Latter-day
Saints are more Republican than they are Mormon. This election proves my point.
I don’t know quite what to think about this, but I find it depressing. All I
have to say to those who voted for Trump is that you’re getting what you
deserve. Good luck.
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